What Does the Recent Tax Reform Mean for the NJ Real Estate Market?

It is not a “Happy New Year” for New Jersey residents and prospective homeowners when it comes to the new tax plan that was unveiled at the White House last week. Essentially, a tax increase is the way these homeowners are starting 2018, as the cap on state and local tax deductions is now $10,000. Not only did taxes go up, but the state housing market is also affected.

New Jersey residents pay one of the highest tax rates in the federal government but experience one of the lowest returns of federal spending of any state. At the center of the first federal tax code reform in 31 years is a steep corporate tax cut that proponents of the legislation hope will unleash the nations’ economy. Of course, to make up for dramatic corporate tax cuts, deductions are placed under the microscope. Unfortunately, some of these targeted deductions have been particularly beneficial to New Jersey residents in the past.

If a current or prospective homeowner was paying $10,000 with pre-tax dollars and they’re now paying $14,000, in reality they will have to pay about $5,000 to pay the additional difference of $4,000. Fourteen thousand dollars in real estate taxes doesn’t compare with the top 5 New Jersey towns when it comes to their 2016 Average Residential Tax Bill. The municipality of Tavistock comes in at number one with the 2016 average bill at $31,132.

As a current homeowner, you may wonder how this will affect your property value. The landscape doesn’t look very green. Nobody knows for sure; as real estate markets are affected by more variables than just real estate taxes. The most affected consumer lives in 1 of 7 New Jersey counties that make up the top 10 in the United States. These are the consumers who will lose the most in home prices across the nation.  At the top of the Average House Price Decline list is Essex County which will take a hit of 10.5%.

Some grim scenarios propose that high-income residents would migrate to other states, a slowdown in home sales would affect contractors and home building businesses and stores, and the already high-taxed state would see even higher taxes.

As mentioned before, there are many factors that enter into the real estate market and New Jersey realtors must continue to sell the same way even with the uncertainty created by the new tax plan. With a low-inventory market or, in other words, when there are more buyers than sellers, and when you write off your full real estate tax amount, the real estate market is much more stable. It has been considered a sellers’ market for some time now with sellers getting considerably more than just their asking price in many cases. Eager buyers may now delay making a move from renting to buying or purchasing a bigger home for their growing family. Those who invest in real estate and current landlords will be able to pass along these tax increases to their tenants.

Normally, if the economy holds steady, the real estate market follows suit or self-corrects. Of course, the true impact won’t be known until spring has sprung and the real estate market begins to bloom.

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